MCom I Semester Statistical Analysis Simulation Study Material Notes ( part 2 )
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MCom I Semester Statistical Analysis Simulation Study Material Notes ( part 2 ) : Determination of Random Number interval for processing time Simulation Worksheet Random Numer Coding for Receipts and Payments Application of Simulation in Complex Queuing waiting for line Probmems Application of Simulation Inventory Control Examinations Questions Long Answer Questions Shot Questions :
MCom I Semester Statistical Analysis Test Significance Small Samples Study Material Notes
Illustration 5.
The management of A, B, C companies is considering the question of marketing a new product. The fixed cost required in the project is Rs. 4,000. Three factors are uncertain viz., the selling price, variable cost and the annual sales volume. The product has a life of only one year. The management has the data on these three factors:
| Selling Price(Rs.) | Probability | Variable Cost ( Rs ) | Probability | Sales Volume ( Units ) | Probability |
|
3 4 5 |
0.2 0.5 0.3 |
1 2 3 |
0.3
0.6 0.1 |
2,000
3,000 5,000 |
0.3 0.3 0.4 |
Consider the following sequence of thirty random numbers :
81, 32, 60, 04, 46, 31, 67, 25, 24, 10, 40, 02, 39, 68, 08,
59, 66, 90, 12, 64, 79, 31, 86, 68, 82, 89, 25, 11, 98, 16.
Using the sequence (First 3 random numbers for the first trial, etc.) simulate the average profit for the above project on the basis of 10 trials.
Solution.
First of all, random numbers 00-99 are allocated in proportion to the probabilities associated with each of the three variables as given under :
|
Selling Price(Rs.) |
Probabilities
|
Cumulative Probabilities |
Random Numbers Assigned |
|
3 4 5 Variable Cost ( Rs ) 1 2 3 |
0.2
0.5 0.3
0.3 0.6 0.1 |
0.2
0.7 1.0
0.3 0.9 1.0 |
00-19
20-69 70-99
00-29 30-89 90-99 |
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